India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Seven of the meetings will be held in late November or early December at the finance ministry, as is the norm.
Climate and sustainable development financing, multilateral institution reforms, regulation of digital assets, the spillover effect on developing economies from actions of western central banks, energy and food security in the backdrop of war in Europe, and sanctions on Russia and their impact on the global economy are some of the agenda items that India will take up as President of G-20, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday. India will take over as President of the powerful international grouping on December 1 for a year. There will be around 200 meetings throughout the country, with the summit Heads of State meeting expected to be held in New Delhi next September.
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
The Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC) has recommended the environmental release of the genetically modified (GM) mustard variety DMH (Dhara Mustard Hybrid)-11, paving the way for the commercialisation of the country's first GM food crop. The GEAC said the recommendation was valid for four years from the date the approval letter was issued. Further studies and coordinated trials will have to be conducted jointly with the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) within two years, according to the minutes of the GEAC meeting held on October 18, which was released on Wednesday.
'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'
The Centre is in "mission mode" to fill vacancies in government departments and ministries. The Department of Expenditure is currently following up with other wings of the government to expedite pending appointments. Regular follow-ups are being made to fill the vacant positions, so that the stated target of eliminating 1 million vacancies is met by December 2023, ahead of the next Lok Sabha elections. Even as the nodal ministry for filling vacant positions in the government is the Department of Personnel and Training (DoPT), the Department of Expenditure's Establishment Coordination (Personnel) division is providing support for the recruitment drive.
Increasing sugar production shall create problems for the industry, whereas boosting ethanol output can bring rich returns, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari told sugar mills on Wednesday. Speaking at a conference on sugar and ethanol, organised by the Indian Sugar Mills Association, Gadkari surprised the audience comprising senior executives of sugar mills by stating that the future will become bleak for the industry if it continues to churn out high quantities of sugar. "We need more ethanol than sugar. Also, bio-ethanol is the way to go as it can be stored for a longer duration as compared to conventional ethanol. "If you increase sugar production, it will create more problems for you.
The southwest monsoon might finally start withdrawing from parts of North-West India over the next three days, signaling the end of its four-month journey over the country that started in June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. However, though the retreat might begin from next week, the rains might not descend quickly, as the met department predicted fresh spells of rains in Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and east MP on September 21-22 and over Odisha, Coastal areas north Andhra Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal on September 19-21. "Due to anti-cyclonic flows over northwest India at lower tropospheric levels, dry weather is very likely over west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during the next five days. "Hence conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of northwest India during next three days," the IMD said.
The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) has arrested a person who the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) said has emerged as the mastermind of the racket of incorporating a large number of shell companies with Chinese links in India.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
The Centre has garnered around Rs 2,500-3,000 crore in the first five weeks after it imposed a windfall tax on oil and gas companies for the export of fuel, Business Standard has learnt. It is likely that the government will continue with the one-time tax till the Indian crude basket is above $80 a barrel, sources said. The next review of the windfall tax on oil companies is early next week.
In May, Satpal Singh, who runs a dairy business with three buffaloes in Jewar, near Noida, was worried about the steep spike in input costs. Singh said dry fodder rates, which cost Rs 1,500-2000 per tractor trolley last year, were quoting at Rs 4,500-5,000. The price of other cattle feed ingredients (that include mustard meal and similar mixes) had also gone up from Rs 2,000 per quintal to Rs 3,100-3,200 per quintal.
After becoming active over the rice-growing Indo-Gangetic plains, the southwest monsoon might witness weak phase for the next 3-4 days over the already rain-deficient region. So far, the main deficit states are Uttar Pradesh (-42 per cent), Bihar (-36 per cent), Jharkhand (-48 per cent), and West Bengal (-24 per cent). According to private weather forecasting agency Skymet, rains in west UP, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand are expected to be weak in the next 3-4 days before again picking pace.
India's plan to produce ethanol from second-generation (2G) sources -- mainly farm waste -- is taking time to materialise even as the government is set to dedicate to the nation on Wednesday a Rs 900-crore plant set up by Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) in Panipat. Though state-run oil companies had decided to set up at least 12 plants in 2016-17 with an investment of around Rs 10,000 crore, this will be the first unit coming on track while others are stuck in various stages owing to issues like capital expenditure, lack of feedstock, and high rates of finished products compared to traditional ethanol units. According to industry sources, three more second-generation plants are coming up.
The area under paddy - the biggest foodgrain during the kharif season - was almost 13 per cent lower in the week ended August 5 as compared to the same period last year despite a slight pick-up in rains in the main growing regions, triggering fears of a 10-12 million-tonne drop in final output. Sources said with the peak sowing season for paddy almost coming to an end in the big-growing states, any uptick in coverage from here onwards may not give the desired yields. With 30 per cent of normal average area in which paddy is grown every year remaining unsown till early August, there is a limited chance of a big uptick in output, trade and market sources said.
The Centre's capital expenditure (capex) outlay for the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2022-23 (FY23) could be close to Rs 1.5 trillion, Business Standard has learnt. As a percentage of full-year capex Budget Estimates (BE) of Rs 7.5 trillion, this could be at similar levels to the trends in the past few fiscal years. It is in the July-September quarter (Q2) of FY23 that capex is expected to pick up, when a bulk of the long-term capex loans to states are expected to be expended.
Centre's move to form a 29-member panel on making the minimum support price (MSP) mechanism effective and keeping three positions vacant in it for SKM representatives has triggered strong disapproval from it.
Trade and market players have already started factoring in at least 10 million tonnes drop in production in rice in the kharif season as compared to last year due to delayed sowing.
A head of its meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can take some solace from the softening food commodity prices. However, the events surrounding the last few weeks show that the fall may not be uniform across all commodities, and cereals like wheat and rice could be the outliers. A Reuters report said that local wheat prices jumped to a record Rs 23,547 per tonne on Wednesday. That is a 12 per cent rise from the recent lows that followed the government's surprise ban on exports on May 14.
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